Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio beat AC Milan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6870a5f0f00e54c1e9b53df6b116d01c5e339d425ece6c99d340f95b27126f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed No | 75c | 2,681$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 49c | 2,104$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.96 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 31c | 1,603$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 51c | 1,541$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 24c | 1,083$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.78 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 33c | 617.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.47 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 48c | 474.07$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 35c | 465.12$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.33 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 80c | 440.18$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 416$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 27c | 407.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 33c | 372.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.88 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 28c | 344.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 45c | 313.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.92 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 28c | 260.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 25c | 213.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 57c | 160$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 129.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 79c | 61.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 76c | 58.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 71c | 41.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08dc…6ef8backed No | 51c | 27.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 37c | 27.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio beat AC Milan?this page
- Will AC Milan beat Lazio?No won
- Will AC Milan vs. Lazio End in a Draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.