Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa92428405d30516033bea83ff4fdc64c4de2807fc6b309a44d578d8025fa4794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 26c | 7,333$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.06 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 27c | 2,791$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.32 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 72c | 2,759$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.75 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 73c | 2,268$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.66 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 74c | 1,821$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.36 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 71c | 1,334$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.46 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 75c | 1,318$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.82 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 73c | 874.89$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.68 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 72c | 791.51$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Yes | 76c | 659.99$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed No | 25c | 649.4$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 23c | 581$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 25c | 565.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 73c | 492.35$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 79c | 486.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked No | 21c | 443.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 79c | 433.47$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 24c | 419.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 74c | 415.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 27c | 413.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 14c | 403$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 80c | 394.92$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 27c | 376.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 69c | 328.53$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…6783backed Yes | 75c | 242.77$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3553…9f46backed No | 28c | 236.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 17c | 215.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Yes | 76c | 197.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…f637backed Yes | 76c | 185.45$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 72c | 168$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 34c | 148.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 72c | 131.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 78c | 124$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 16c | 118.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 75c | 114.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 75c | 110.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Yes | 72c | 105.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 31c | 78.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 34c | 64.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 76c | 63.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 79c | 58.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 25c | 57.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 29c | 55.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 29c | 43.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes | 73c | 42.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 27c | 41.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 28c | 37.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…523bbacked Yes | 70c | 32.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Yes | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Yes | 76c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…1782backed Yes | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 73c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…b968backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 73c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Yes | 73c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Yes | 70c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Yes | 74c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.