Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa968b4cfa05d049b6783771d8b0d974f31ae43fe9141fda9a80788c145327a8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 0c | 12,463$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 3c | 1,087$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 161.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 62c | 159.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 76c | 137.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 124$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 118.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 79.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 77.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 73.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 71.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 69.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 68.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 54c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 58.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 49.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 34c | 47.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 31c | 47.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 66c | 46.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 44c | 45.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 42.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 52c | 42.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 46c | 40.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 71c | 39.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 61c | 34.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 34c | 33.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 28.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 41c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 58c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.