Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69107c7e59c04812fa7aed802f42ad7d31c556de605becd426ade16e6493bf86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 650.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 4c | 436.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 5c | 348.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.86 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 317.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 273.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 192.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.59 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 139.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 134.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 113.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 112.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 63c | 108.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 104.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 90.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 63c | 84.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 83.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 23c | 78.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 73.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 70.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 22c | 69.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 31c | 67.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 66.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 27c | 64.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 77c | 55.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 27c | 55.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 53.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 49.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 24c | 43.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 68c | 39.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 38.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 38.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 37.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 31c | 33.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 27.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 66c | 25.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 62c | 17.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.