AI · resolved market
Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa96d2cb80c768b85287411be93f11acd6438c7285fcae33ccb1da345b8c385ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 10c | 4,729$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 16c | 2,910$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,907$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 1,573$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ce…dbbbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,511$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…9d82backed Yes | 10c | 896$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…da42backed Yes | 14c | 730.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…89febacked Yes | 10c | 718.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…026fbacked Yes | 36c | 584.89$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked Yes | 7c | 418.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…5815backed Yes | 6c | 404.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 7c | 401$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 363.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 327.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…3785backed Yes | 12c | 240.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 211.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 72c | 125.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cd…93e6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…3d77backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 16c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 32c | 76.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…b553backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…7b54backed Yes | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.