Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa973c52c9e12c1581534ff2f186efd4a4c83457b1047277da2c751384ea7a656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,854 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 55c | 15,077$8,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,784.3 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Over | 45c | 13,875$6,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,243.75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…6c2abacked Over | 44c | 677.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 45c | 627.57$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.31 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 540$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.6 | 1,792 | 51.1%916 W · 876 L | +50.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 45c | 525$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -16.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 56c | 445.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 270.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 44c | 238.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Over | 45c | 185.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 163 | 25.2%41 W · 122 L | -15.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Over | 45c | 185$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Under | 56c | 88.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Under | 56c | 80.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 219 | 54.3%119 W · 100 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 44c | 65.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 44c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Under | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 43c | 38.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 45c | 38.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…22f4backed Over | 48c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- LoL: HMBLE vs Orzeł Barcząca Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group EOrzeł Barcząca Esports won
- LoL: HMBLE vs Orzeł Barcząca Esports - Game 1 WinnerOrzeł Barcząca Esports won
- LoL: HMBLE vs Orzeł Barcząca Esports - Game 2 WinnerOrzeł Barcząca Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.