Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa976e2aa1660d371e4235c0d4bd4bc67f722bfcde87833b19b8a25c68b5c5aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Cheeki_Breeki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 1,734$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.52 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 47c | 894.47$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.33 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 829.83$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.71 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 727.57$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.35 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 657.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.65 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Cheeki_Breeki | 57c | 600.83$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.64 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cheeki_Breeki | 71c | 600$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 6c | 394$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 6c | 394$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 323.35$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 316.59$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.13 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Cheeki_Breeki | 54c | 306.07$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Cheeki_Breeki | 7c | 301.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5d87backed Cheeki_Breeki | 39c | 244.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 230.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 223.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 53c | 193.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Cheeki_Breeki | 30c | 191.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cheeki_Breeki | 62c | 164.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 27c | 157.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 69c | 128.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 27c | 119.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Cheeki_Breeki | 44c | 73.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 26c | 58.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cheeki_Breeki | 65c | 52.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 51.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Cheeki_Breeki | 73c | 33.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Cheeki_Breeki | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Cheeki_Breeki | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Cheeki_Breeki (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.