MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9916cbcafce08eec210d2b5b9e352dbcbff047a3829df8af9ccef1455c5dcde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 39c | 883.89$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 70c | 492.49$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.83 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 40c | 483.33$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.33 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 58c | 434.51$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.51 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 366.6$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.63 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 186.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 172.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 53c | 153.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 127.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 34c | 108.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 43c | 75.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 70.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 55c | 61.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…8bc4backed Under | 51c | 58.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 56c | 55.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 55.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 54.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 43c | 49.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 44c | 33.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 52c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 38c | 27.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Under | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 19.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 58c | 18.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 60c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.