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Ligue 1 · resolved market

Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes62c40,000$24,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,2009244.6%41 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No38c36,901$14,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,031.291861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c11,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes63c10,525$6,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,894.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No37c7,614$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.171,93945.3%878 W · 1,061 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.8923151.5%119 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes64c4,050$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45812839.8%51 W · 77 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a8…81f5backed Yes63c2,597$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.525100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No37c1,698$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.167529.3%22 W · 53 L-14.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No37c1,425$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.353751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No37c1,338$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.188041.3%33 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.420232.7%66 W · 136 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked No37c1,157$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.22812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked No37c1,107$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6513050.8%66 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes61c1,045$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.5819055.8%106 W · 84 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…3378backed No36c1,025$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.254645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf341…d026backed No42c715.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5b…6e33backed Yes62c640.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.891338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc648…259cbacked Yes60c600$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2431163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes59c600$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2463145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa52e…e2c4backed Yes59c588$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked No37c513.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.173151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1590…9e72backed Yes63c466.02$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.431546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Yes60c450$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.252055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc151…2501backed Yes63c350$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+76.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8480…293ebacked Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes62c296.66$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7233938.1%129 W · 210 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No33c251.86$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.091,44141%591 W · 850 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No12c242.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8721560%129 W · 86 L+15.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No36c221.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6414452.1%75 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes64c203.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.135156.9%29 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No38c134.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.311745.3%53 W · 64 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes61c104$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5627046.3%125 W · 145 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9341…0fa0backed Yes63c98.89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7714741.5%61 W · 86 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f91…9388backed Yes60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed No39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafff…19b2backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed Yes61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes63c63.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.516850%34 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No37c62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9412147.9%58 W · 63 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No37c59.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9412050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9999…9868backed Yes63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked No38c47.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932e…6f5abacked Yes63c43.43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf8…cb04backed Yes62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.322740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Yes64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab7a…8357backed Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7d…6aeabacked Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+55.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bae…5c82backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd6…16f8backed Yes64c28.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ac…33b2backed Yes60c21.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b8…6a66backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.