Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa995f1311e622348511857ab29470a365d9d6fac444798b22c4de7d422009005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 62c | 40,000$24,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,200 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 38c | 36,901$14,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,031.29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes | 63c | 10,525$6,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,894.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 7,614$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.17 | 1,939 | 45.3%878 W · 1,061 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.89 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 64c | 4,050$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 63c | 2,597$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 37c | 1,698$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.16 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 37c | 1,425$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.35 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 37c | 1,338$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.18 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked No | 37c | 1,157$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 37c | 1,107$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.65 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,045$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.58 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed No | 36c | 1,025$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…d026backed No | 42c | 715.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5b…6e33backed Yes | 62c | 640.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Yes | 60c | 600$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Yes | 59c | 588$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 37c | 513.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…9e72backed Yes | 63c | 466.02$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 60c | 450$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed Yes | 63c | 350$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 62c | 296.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 251.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 1,441 | 41%591 W · 850 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 12c | 242.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 36c | 221.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 64c | 203.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 38c | 134.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 61c | 104$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 270 | 46.3%125 W · 145 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9341…0fa0backed Yes | 63c | 98.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 147 | 41.5%61 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…19b2backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 63c | 63.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 37c | 59.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932e…6f5abacked Yes | 63c | 43.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…cb04backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…8357backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…6aeabacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…16f8backed Yes | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…33b2backed Yes | 60c | 21.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-19?No won
- Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.