Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b7809ca3fa16cdeb8c1d94fee03904494ae2c89d000793dfd638e1f94f7e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Team Lynx, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Lynx | 45c | 12,754$5,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,786.65 | 1,202 | 42.8%514 W · 688 L | +38.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Spirit Academy | 79c | 6,774$5,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.51 | 486 | 50.8%247 W · 239 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 6,417$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,417.31 | 541 | 51.8%280 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 907 | 41.2%374 W · 533 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…5e0dbacked Team Lynx | 49c | 4,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.96 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Lynx | 18c | 3,971$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.55 | 515 | 48.9%252 W · 263 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 3,966$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.47 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…0263backed Team Lynx | 47c | 2,311$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.32 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Team Lynx | 55c | 1,558$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.86 | 585 | 48.5%284 W · 301 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9247…7789backed Team Lynx | 11c | 1,371$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…2eeabacked Spirit Academy | 74c | 1,201$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.26 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 918.57$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.42 | 216 | 60.6%131 W · 85 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Team Lynx | 6c | 828.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 343 | 2.9%10 W · 333 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…7c42backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 699.99$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Lynx | 57c | 694.45$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.41 | 444 | 38.7%172 W · 272 L | -43.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Lynx | 23c | 633.75$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 688 | 47.4%326 W · 362 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Team Lynx | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Team Lynx | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Team Lynx | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…5e5ebacked Team Lynx | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Team Lynx | 11c | 547.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…d897backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Team Lynx | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 266 | 53.8%143 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 444.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.45 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…e9b9backed Team Lynx | 58c | 440.36$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.41 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 436.07$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.13 | 970 | 42.2%409 W · 561 L | -20.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0396…86babacked Team Lynx | 65c | 396.22$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.34 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Lynx | 49c | 385$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.55 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 358.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Team Lynx | 10c | 338.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -15.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…f280backed Team Lynx | 17c | 315.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked Spirit Academy | 77c | 295.32$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…7f23backed Spirit Academy | 72c | 272$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cf…9ab4backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 271.04$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Team Lynx | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Team Lynx | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…4d40backed Team Lynx | 63c | 238.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Team Lynx | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf848…8c59backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 219.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc222…f6ccbacked Team Lynx | 66c | 217$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Team Lynx | 8c | 216.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 198 | 35.9%71 W · 127 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…86bbbacked Team Lynx | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…6e75backed Team Lynx | 60c | 193.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 186.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Spirit Academy | 72c | 159.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Team Lynx | 51c | 153.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Lynx | 32c | 146.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078f…95febacked Team Lynx | 74c | 134.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked Spirit Academy | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 129.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Lynx | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 833 | 45.1%376 W · 457 L | -28.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f90backed Team Lynx | 11c | 87.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…247cbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 86.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 84.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 244 | 43%105 W · 139 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Team Lynx | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Team Lynx | 58c | 75.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Spirit Academy | 77c | 75.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…3d36backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 68.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Team Lynx | 46c | 47.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 319 | 50.8%162 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf39…3394backed Team Lynx | 65c | 43.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Lynx | 38c | 42.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,158 | 47.7%552 W · 606 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0db…d489backed Team Lynx | 72c | 41.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed Team Lynx | 71c | 40.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 155 | 67.7%105 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Team Lynx | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 220 | 44.1%97 W · 123 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…ef1fbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 35.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…24d9backed Team Lynx | 57c | 31.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 27.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 397 | 58.7%233 W · 164 L | +24.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Team Lynx | 64c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 392 | 46.2%181 W · 211 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team Lynx | 57c | 21.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…b754backed Spirit Academy | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…8c27backed Team Lynx | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…482dbacked Team Lynx | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.