Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb611a5277deb794e96d54fa4618f1339b9b1852295d3e4f727159456db2ee2ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Spirit Academy | 36c | 7,063$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,542.67 | 1,202 | 42.8%514 W · 688 L | +38.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…0263backed Team Lynx | 74c | 4,323$3,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.47 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…5e0dbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 3,125$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 3,063$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.42 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…9536backed Spirit Academy | 34c | 2,897$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Team Lynx | 63c | 2,325$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861 | 312 | 55.1%172 W · 140 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…9340backed Team Lynx | 67c | 2,161$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 704 | 35.4%249 W · 455 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Spirit Academy | 15c | 1,740$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.59 | 659 | 25.5%168 W · 491 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…2eeabacked Team Lynx | 79c | 1,400$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.31 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…1799backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 1,356$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.54 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 870.85$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.68 | 444 | 38.7%172 W · 272 L | -43.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Lynx | 63c | 847.31$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.5 | 585 | 56.8%332 W · 253 L | +28.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…4d40backed Team Lynx | 69c | 695.82$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 599.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 266 | 53.8%143 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…08f4backed Team Lynx | 63c | 540.88$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…c059backed Spirit Academy | 13c | 510$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…e9b9backed Team Lynx | 57c | 448.08$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked Team Lynx | 78c | 426.31$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 216 | 60.6%131 W · 85 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 401.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 486 | 50.8%247 W · 239 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked Team Lynx | 79c | 365.8$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…5518backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 336.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…aceebacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 330$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…22acbacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 326.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed Team Lynx | 65c | 236.92$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Team Lynx | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 228 | 39.5%90 W · 138 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b32…62bdbacked Team Lynx | 79c | 224.73$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…86bbbacked Spirit Academy | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…6e75backed Team Lynx | 63c | 194.92$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Lynx | 75c | 185.34$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 287 | 45.6%131 W · 156 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 148$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 688 | 47.4%326 W · 362 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…0d49backed Team Lynx | 62c | 128.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 127.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 181 | 37%67 W · 114 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Lynx | 76c | 124.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Lynx | 79c | 117.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…0128backed Team Lynx | 77c | 112.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked Spirit Academy | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked Team Lynx | 63c | 106.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 91.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 925 | 53.6%496 W · 429 L | +51.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 16c | 90.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 833 | 45.1%376 W · 457 L | -28.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…3d36backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 80.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Lynx | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…24d9backed Team Lynx | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Team Lynx | 57c | 77.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | -19.9wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0db…d489backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…75c2backed Team Lynx | 75c | 53.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 319 | 50.8%162 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Team Lynx | 63c | 44.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 39.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 33.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 397 | 58.7%233 W · 164 L | +24.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Spirit Academy | 34c | 29.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 295 | 50.5%149 W · 146 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Team Lynx | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Team Lynx | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…482dbacked Team Lynx | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.