Movies · resolved market
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9cc17736fae41295e5c06c125a33609f0cd351b21f65b746bf6faab381471d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 9c | 8,987$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.39 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 10c | 3,952$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.49 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 5c | 2,127$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,781$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 8c | 1,684$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 10c | 1,324$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 609.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 603.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 463.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 365$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 11c | 326$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 9c | 209$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 7c | 205.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 6c | 170.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 7c | 152$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7226…251bbacked Yes | 8c | 134.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 16c | 108.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…4028backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Beast" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.