Movies · resolved market
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0298a9e3948374a4c3341f5b286f6f99a6bd6bd960c455bf8bb355c2eff358c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked Yes | 73c | 5,843$4,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.03 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked No | 8c | 5,172$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 7c | 4,420$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.39 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 10c | 4,395$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.39 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 11c | 3,756$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.63 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 12c | 1,624$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 1,487$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 58c | 1,448$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 32c | 1,225$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…6338backed Yes | 70c | 1,165$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 61c | 1,105$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.48 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 15c | 977$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 69c | 924.84$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.13 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 14c | 856.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 824.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 768.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 22c | 695.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.21 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 2c | 659.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 4c | 608.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 29c | 537.68$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 42c | 507$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 42c | 472$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 42c | 468$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 33c | 443.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 34c | 417$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…f3d3backed No | 2c | 411.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 407$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 6c | 395.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 7c | 282.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 8c | 233.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 22c | 215$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…2e5bbacked No | 42c | 212.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…e6dbbacked No | 43c | 208$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 26c | 189.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 13c | 184$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 9c | 173.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…7281backed No | 8c | 171.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 23c | 143.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…3c8ebacked No | 10c | 103.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked No | 15c | 99.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed No | 13c | 85.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…4464backed No | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 21.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…0fc9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Beast" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.