Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa06ad7e49eeef5f36d358da3ea5b4d4c5ac98ce8ca54423ff667d03e242d09f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 64c | 2,332$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 1,837$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.22 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 1,495$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 73c | 886.86$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 779.51$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 53c | 522$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.81 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 27c | 462.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 25c | 400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 41c | 393.65$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 309$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 70c | 293$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 75c | 202.42$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.82 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 24c | 164.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 61c | 154.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 68c | 146.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…a2ccbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 72c | 134$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 117.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…c149backed No | 72c | 59.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…0740backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…8539backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.