South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa167bd3b59ee961f198e2ba73afda769be1dfb2d51115a0073aa1ea10e9379e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,891 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,499$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 8c | 1,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 22c | 1,246$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.09 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 832.06$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.05 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked No | 76c | 270$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 14c | 263.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 24c | 223.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 194.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 22c | 180.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 8c | 172.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 77c | 169.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 7c | 147.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 145.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 144.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 19c | 125.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Yes | 15c | 92.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 70.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 61.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…8fe6backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6816backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-18?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-03-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.