MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa28b36e962258e6b3175dadb3ad4dc84e4ba8dc25bd035a0db07c9cb3054dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 45c | 2,619$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.68 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 1,543$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 56c | 630$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 468.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.59 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 58c | 451.55$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.82 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 41c | 275.16$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 56c | 181.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 127.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 44c | 102.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 55c | 91.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 86.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 46c | 78.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 49.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 47c | 39.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Under | 51c | 35.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…4cc2backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 24.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta BravesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.