MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd617d9410e32051e112ea62695b92960adb09edb5c58d8a5ab43e1fd2ada14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 1,966$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 1,805$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 1,663$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.47 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 20c | 1,634$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Texas Rangers | 23c | 595.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 449.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 416.84$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 382$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 376.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 301.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Texas Rangers | 29c | 206.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 186.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 140.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 115.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Texas Rangers | 29c | 99.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 93.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 84.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 74.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 56.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 51.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 50.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 49.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 43.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 42.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 39.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 36.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 36.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 26.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 19.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta BravesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.