Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa29f6571a569d6a19908e318690b16a892330907673a6307aba0a8d70bb08b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,430$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.89 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 1,105$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.45 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 685.7$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 37c | 681.59$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.95 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 605$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.8 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Yes | 24c | 545.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.48 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 66c | 385.2$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 30c | 250$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 212.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 66c | 158$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 27c | 152$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 76c | 121.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 105.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 94.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 78c | 83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 20c | 82.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 81.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 76.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 36c | 33.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 76c | 18.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 79c | 15.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.