Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3e79bdfffe3c0b360c219e03a2b4960ff20afe41714e1318d64a4e34d4c571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 6c | 1,535$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 367.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 299.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 80c | 297.95$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 227.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 222.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 219.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 214$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 76c | 195.83$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 76c | 182.13$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 158.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 78c | 137.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 106.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 63c | 105.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 59c | 97.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 93.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 58.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 38c | 58.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 51.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed No | 76c | 50.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 75c | 49.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 35c | 49.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 29c | 48.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 32.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 75c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.