Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce123c3c54516fa9b47ce8c4ff42e88fd2cfb6e31dd40cacce34ef44d63a9f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 603.48$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 581.06$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…8bf8backed No | 4c | 547.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 242.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 41c | 241.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 109.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 96.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 68.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 68.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 57.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 54.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…cf03backed Yes | 39c | 47.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 32c | 45.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 35c | 40.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 39.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…5b16backed Yes | 50c | 38.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 36.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 36.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 58c | 32.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 59c | 31.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 33c | 31.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 64c | 31.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 50c | 29.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 62c | 26.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…6126backed No | 75c | 26.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 25.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 24.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 63c | 20.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 66c | 19.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 73c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 77c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.