Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa46140dd20a194a1e62ea75e1114ab559510f4e9116ff1af8ecdb97f7581a48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 470.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 467.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 352.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 291.92$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 20c | 253.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 239.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 44c | 218.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 15c | 171.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 26c | 105.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 105.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 100.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 23c | 97.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 91.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 79.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 60c | 71.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 71.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 67.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 19c | 65.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 62.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 60.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 59.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 52.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 50.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 50.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 50.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 49.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 44.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 31.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 30.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 20.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 18.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 17.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 15.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 79c | 13.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 13.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.