Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4bce3475ad9be179d182b69487f81746899aec7b1d7c326b3de2b882e8b1a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 26c | 1,454$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.41 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 600$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 511.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 279$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 23c | 245.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 158.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 153.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 22c | 148.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 78c | 137.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 79c | 126.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 23c | 118.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 18c | 111.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b37…3a72backed Yes | 19c | 108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 24c | 104.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 20c | 104.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 100.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…d217backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 97.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 23c | 96.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 84.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 81.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 75.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 23c | 73.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed Yes | 19c | 73.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 66.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 16c | 65.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 24c | 65.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 24c | 61.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 60.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 23c | 59.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 57.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 28c | 51.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 49.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 49.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 24c | 46.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…a65ebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 78c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.