College Football · resolved market
Nevada vs. Western Kentucky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5a8c83e5dd1b2587a5adaaa0da7bff71d418e299ca711cd63a84b1046acbcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Kentuckyof Nevada, Western Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Western Kentucky | 62c | 1,619$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.88 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nevada | 40c | 1,176$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.18 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Western Kentucky | 77c | 957.76$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Nevada | 25c | 799.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Western Kentucky | 50c | 504.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Western Kentucky | 80c | 503.5$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Nevada | 52c | 479.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nevada | 43c | 387.57$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.05 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Nevada | 21c | 344$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nevada | 43c | 297.17$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 267.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Nevada | 25c | 200.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Nevada | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Western Kentucky | 56c | 198.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Western Kentucky | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Western Kentucky | 57c | 174.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Western Kentucky | 74c | 149.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Western Kentucky | 75c | 132.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Nevada | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Western Kentucky | 41c | 108.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nevada | 13c | 105.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Western Kentucky | 74c | 104.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nevada | 43c | 103.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Western Kentucky | 60c | 100.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Nevada | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Nevada | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Western Kentucky | 79c | 95.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nevada | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Nevada | 24c | 89.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Nevada | 36c | 82.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Nevada | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Nevada | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…dfeebacked Western Kentucky | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Nevada | 21c | 63.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Western Kentucky | 79c | 59.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Western Kentucky | 74c | 53.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Nevada | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nevada | 25c | 41.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked Western Kentucky | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nevada vs. Western Kentuckythis page
- Spread: Western Kentucky (-9.5)Western Kentucky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.