Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa654d197e9099713724acec7fbdb468f152d98bd63f48e32970b18a4df85492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 1,322$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 787.57$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 49c | 648.91$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.53 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 564.35$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed No | 60c | 290.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.72 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 259.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 34c | 241.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 25c | 220.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 80c | 193.55$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 169.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 159.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 64c | 159.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 72c | 142.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 33c | 140.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 46c | 131.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 120.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 107.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 52c | 104.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 104.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 54c | 95.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 54c | 95.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 51c | 95.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 89.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 61c | 76.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 69.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 25c | 64.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 80c | 56.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 61c | 55.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 52.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 58c | 49.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 55c | 45.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 61c | 45.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 45.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 45c | 44.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 59c | 44.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49da…0f6abacked Yes | 48c | 43.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…61d3backed Yes | 49c | 41.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 63c | 39.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 46c | 39.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…40c2backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 38.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 60c | 37.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…ac3ebacked No | 79c | 32.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 31.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 53c | 29.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…cc37backed No | 63c | 29.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 29.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 46c | 28.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 61c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 61c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 70c | 27.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 58c | 24.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…2c9cbacked No | 60c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 68c | 22.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 78c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 54c | 19.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 19.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…51d6backed No | 60c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 67cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked No | 76c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.