Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7608b2d7f8a486643dc4e99bbd10bb5c8963edb18e42a97cfee1121c0d4242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 430.83$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 424.3$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 264.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 260.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 29c | 206.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 30c | 178.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 146.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 60c | 144.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 56c | 144.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 135.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 57c | 108.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 37c | 100.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 95.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 94.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 58c | 93.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 69c | 87.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 86.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 20c | 62.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 60.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 57.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 54.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 56c | 53.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 45c | 51.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 51.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 70c | 50.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 58c | 46.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 68c | 44.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 36c | 40.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 61c | 38.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 37c | 36.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 44c | 34.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 30.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 50c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 61c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 44c | 28.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 54c | 26.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 61c | 23.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 65c | 21.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 73c | 19.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 66c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 16.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.