Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65e7110d44563053d799e286cf22d13fcf15b3c2cd1164361f234623cd68ac4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 503.18$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 355.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 56c | 263.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 246.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 232.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 41c | 157.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 56c | 134.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 105.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 29c | 98.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 96.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 95.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 79c | 86.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 77.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 16c | 76.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 76.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 70.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 69.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 17c | 66.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 58.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 22c | 58.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 56.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 71c | 53.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 25c | 51.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 48.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 45.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 77c | 44.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 29c | 44.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 49c | 42.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 65c | 28.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 64c | 26.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 57c | 22.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 71c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.