Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-08-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7a5eb5ec5ee86502450907f661b5f9d2d7c9a17e518cf927357bcc684f4485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $518,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $519,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0764…e01fbacked No | 18c | 483,411$85,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,431.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed No | 18c | 5,236$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -77%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 20c | 3,100$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.97 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed No | 16c | 1,343$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…336cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,178$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked No | 16c | 1,158$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 79c | 734.78$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 314.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 19c | 186.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed No | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…e752backed Yes | 80c | 50.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3533…6741backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…e3ecbacked Yes | 79c | 28.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-08-21?this page
- Will FC Midtjylland vs. KuPS end in a draw?No won
- Will KuPS win on 2025-08-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.