MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa93a9bb5488024b3534600515cfb36cbade575eaed0e1c88dedbfc7908e020d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 54c | 18,936$10,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,659.71 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 10,226$4,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.86 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 5,393$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.76 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 45c | 2,885$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.25 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 53c | 2,130$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.1 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 1,858$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.5 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 474.69$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Over | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 47c | 368.61$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.22 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 210.7$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…3b00backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 182.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 20c | 161.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 160$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 46c | 157.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Over | 54c | 108.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 47c | 48.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 48c | 46.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 42.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 53c | 37.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 36.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 35.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.