CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab034ed940937367336ecaceedbbf39a2b4ba651d161c336c77c16f9895095c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof AaB esport, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2f9…3f4fbacked AaB esport | 0c | 6,771$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed illwill | 68c | 4,400$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.99 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AaB esport | 0c | 3,704$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…6d61backed AaB esport | 21c | 2,345$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked AaB esport | 32c | 2,249$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.72 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 79c | 1,613$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.74 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AaB esport | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 69c | 999.07$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed AaB esport | 4c | 906.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed illwill | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AaB esport | 22c | 319.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked AaB esport | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed illwill | 79c | 269.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed illwill | 70c | 228.4$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 374 | 45.7%171 W · 203 L | -29.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed AaB esport | 14c | 224.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked AaB esport | 32c | 215.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked AaB esport | 21c | 209.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed illwill | 70c | 199.94$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AaB esport | 17c | 180.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed AaB esport | 21c | 173.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked illwill | 65c | 154.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 581 | 49.2%286 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…44c3backed AaB esport | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed AaB esport | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed AaB esport | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked illwill | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bd…fbf3backed AaB esport | 23c | 62.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked illwill | 68c | 56.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed AaB esport | 20c | 56.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AaB esport | 22c | 53.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed AaB esport | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked AaB esport | 29c | 48.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…5ca1backed AaB esport | 26c | 46.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed AaB esport | 32c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked illwill | 76c | 40.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…697fbacked AaB esport | 29c | 37.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed illwill | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 86.1%31 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…b0f1backed illwill | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8432…d2c4backed illwill | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked illwill | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…adb9backed illwill | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked illwill | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,274 | 71.5%911 W · 363 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs illwill - Map 2 WinnerAaB esport won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.