Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab20b4cbac58472ce8c81dc62e9093e8c85ffbc979f52e8fc814a7930cbf8d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,529$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 74c | 483.3$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.26 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Yes | 39c | 247$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 36c | 129.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 111.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 67c | 110.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 110.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 60c | 109.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 31c | 99.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 66c | 97.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 84.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 79.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…ac1fbacked Yes | 48c | 76.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 71.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 40c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 35c | 45.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed No | 68c | 44.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…6f7ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 53c | 35.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 34.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 74c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 27.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…5631backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…8a62backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 24.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.