Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab63ca4d2d0f4766e62c9f144dbc71fb08762d32be82a69d21386a20b8234dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 549.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Yes | 31c | 417.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +104%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 321.28$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 79c | 290.46$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 285.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 214.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 62c | 199.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 180.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 171.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 165.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 14c | 138.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 128.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 127.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 11c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 122.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 120.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 18c | 104.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 99.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 18c | 86.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 83.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 76.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 75.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 48c | 72.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 70.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 63.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 48c | 53.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 64c | 51.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 43.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 72c | 42.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 47c | 41.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 39.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes | 76c | 38.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 41c | 35.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 36c | 34.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…afeebacked Yes | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 36c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…79d7backed Yes | 75c | 29.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 76c | 28.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 24.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.