Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab83651968386c313d30fc000bd930f124e289eb6bc97789ded948241b29e0d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437d…59e5backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 9c | 728.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 422.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 366.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 342.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 10c | 304.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 265.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 262.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 4c | 261.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 7c | 247.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 179.57$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 151.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 10c | 140.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 121.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 36c | 111.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 11c | 105.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 103.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 95.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 60.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 23c | 60.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed No | 61c | 58.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.