Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08b366f7bc4520f848e931244ebd9cdd789b4c99f109495b6077d0d89f9c950a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 855.58$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.38 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 397.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 351.32$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 23c | 324.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 217$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 48c | 204.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 187.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 182.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 170.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 168.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Yes | 67c | 165.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 25c | 159.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 158.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 140.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 72c | 138.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 135.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 133.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 75c | 133.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 132.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 51c | 119.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 117.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 104.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 102.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 96.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 44c | 94.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 88.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 68c | 85.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 83.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 78.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 26c | 77.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…0cd5backed Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 43c | 73.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…e151backed Yes | 40c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 41c | 67.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 44c | 67.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 41c | 63.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 52c | 57.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 33c | 57.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 56.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 58c | 55.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59ec…3dd8backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 57c | 54.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 54.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 53.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 39c | 50.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 49.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked Yes | 30c | 49.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 62c | 47.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…43c2backed No | 60c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 44.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 46c | 42.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 32c | 42.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 67c | 41.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 28c | 41.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 64c | 40.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…3190backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 39.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 38.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 38.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 59c | 37.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 40c | 36.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 42c | 35.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 36c | 34.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 31c | 32.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 55c | 32.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 41c | 31.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…c83ebacked No | 50c | 31.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 38c | 31.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 28.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc01…a3b6backed No | 58c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 66c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 69c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 21.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.