MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab8827a324d8fd091dd4b80f3f986eaec49e316f69c0be1fa2861ce2d24e68e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 12,530$6,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,139.92 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 51c | 7,777$3,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,810.73 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 5,286$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.69 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 2,228$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 1,711$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.28 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,176$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.34 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.84 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 1,152$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 826.71$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 555.17$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 49c | 540.14$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.67 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 169.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 16c | 158.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 88.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 80.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 59c | 67.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 63.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Under | 49c | 62.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 61.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 58.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 47c | 58.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 48c | 53.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 51c | 50.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 38.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 47c | 35.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 50c | 28.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 44c | 23.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 61c | 20.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 57c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 57c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas RangersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.