Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabafeaa17f94e442b02fbd754ee1e1dd76d3c9c9093255a3cc01396be766ea1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $659,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $659,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 49c | 602,609$296,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305,940.08 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 299,941$152,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152,970 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 51c | 200,000$101,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 50c | 32,502$16,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,250.8 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 30,095$15,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,348.3 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Over | 51c | 15,554$7,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,854.77 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 13,467$6,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,877.07 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 51c | 6,767$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.17 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 3,998$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.1 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Over | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 1,521$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.71 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 1,498$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.98 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Over | 51c | 660$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 653$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.51 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 51c | 640$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…c036backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…71d4backed Over | 38c | 181.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 69c | 171.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Over | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 121.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Over | 51c | 47.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…b9d2backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Over | 52c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…99b4backed Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 28.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed Over | 52c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 148.5this page
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-4.5)Colorado State Rams won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State RamsUtah State Aggies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.