Europa Conference League · resolved market
AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe4a808313f32547df81f8f0a886e706723d3fbfca69ffe63ccaf45837ded5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,916 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 1,677$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed No | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 35c | 607.56$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…54bdbacked Yes | 47c | 425.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…a4a1backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked No | 12c | 265$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 25c | 261.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 58c | 251.35$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f18…9aa7backed No | 11c | 249.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed No | 5c | 245$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…66f7backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 39c | 160$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…1fbcbacked No | 53c | 149.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…610bbacked No | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 56c | 107.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…225fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 87.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 63c | 61.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Yes | 41c | 60.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…4415backed Yes | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 60c | 42.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 26.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK Lárnakas (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)AEK Lárnakas won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)AEK Lárnakas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.