Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe77e723de04d2477ddfc70b474247c021c00b06834bfb4cf1544cd15af39ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beijing Guoan FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Shandong Taishan FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Beijing Guoan FC | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Beijing Guoan FC | 51c | 791.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shandong Taishan FC | 60c | 737.51$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.32 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Shandong Taishan FC | 48c | 571.36$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.02 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Beijing Guoan FC | 33c | 338.12$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…0bafbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Shandong Taishan FC | 65c | 295$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Shandong Taishan FC | 67c | 292.49$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.97 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Shandong Taishan FC | 66c | 207.79$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…1facbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 50c | 198.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Beijing Guoan FC | 74c | 149.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Shandong Taishan FC | 65c | 118.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…3d44backed Shandong Taishan FC | 47c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…004dbacked Shandong Taishan FC | 11c | 107.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 53c | 106.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…418bbacked Shandong Taishan FC | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Shandong Taishan FC | 68c | 93.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b99…8f62backed Beijing Guoan FC | 54c | 89.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 46c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Shandong Taishan FC | 42c | 71.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 40c | 40.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…7f8abacked Shandong Taishan FC | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Shandong Taishan FC | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 54c | 22.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Shandong Taishan FC | 65c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Shandong Taishan FC | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.