Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5970b51f6dd09ea1dd7bbe485d3fd0beeac4f0219aa52fa39e8a1abfa4b0e7ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 7,938$5,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.64 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 12c | 3,853$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.61 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 48c | 1,016$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.24 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 46c | 920.33$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 738.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 52c | 726.84$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.87 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 58c | 631.55$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.68 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 51c | 444.04$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.58 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 389.49$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.39 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 52c | 375.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 50c | 288.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 252.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 230.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…ac97backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 51c | 198.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 47c | 187.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 149.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 49c | 143.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 51c | 121.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Over | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 72.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 47c | 72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 49c | 69.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…83f3backed Over | 50c | 53.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 46c | 43.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 51c | 40.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 71c | 35.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…48c6backed Over | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.