Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e7a581e2946b836c4c8b2b1493a35983d435691ddc80f0cdde73b4f772e8ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 74c | 12,396$9,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 6,546$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.78 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 3,974$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.95 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 2,664$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.57 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 40c | 2,519$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 33c | 2,500$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.38 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 1,335$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.04 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Under | 66c | 678.75$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.08 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 79c | 656.07$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 34c | 611.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.68 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 589.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 31c | 490.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.44 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 63c | 337.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.54 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 28c | 299.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 77c | 238$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 48c | 183.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 45c | 177.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 144$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 75c | 128.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 29c | 125.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 692 | 52.3%362 W · 330 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 27c | 120$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Over | 71c | 114$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Over | 71c | 111$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Over | 42c | 100.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 47c | 91.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 29c | 73.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 57c | 69.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 67c | 65.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 63.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…83f3backed Over | 71c | 56.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 53.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 400 | 51%204 W · 196 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 78c | 44.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 72c | 40.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…105dbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Over | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 51c | 21.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 78c | 21.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…48c6backed Over | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 78c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.