MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabeadc55fcf97f07df7bf9b5bb563efbae99c04cfc157babadd4d1cd938465b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 38,455$21,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,320.03 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 19,652$8,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,664.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 15,279$7,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,098.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 64c | 3,125$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 53c | 567.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.77 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 379$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.92 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Under | 55c | 263.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 45c | 142$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 47c | 74.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 48c | 52.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 53c | 47.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 44c | 44.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 43c | 37.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 45c | 22.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…6c55backed Under | 68c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Over | 65c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.