Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac29babfed18d05d514bc826653aec75e62e79c11a622c36fbd7895e72909f54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 817.58$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 335.61$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 329.59$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 223.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 196.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 40c | 154.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 147$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…534bbacked Yes | 64c | 141.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 49c | 126.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 91.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 84.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 52c | 79.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 52c | 76.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 76.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 75.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 73.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 56.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 56.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 52.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 49c | 52.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 48.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 43.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 41.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 54c | 36.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…4f21backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 48c | 34.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 46c | 29.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5601…1e1bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.