Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3b91855d78c35e990cd110b3f40b11ed1f4feea39eeac5a381a121aa50534a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 28c | 1,029$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.17 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 11c | 957.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes | 75c | 788.86$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 21c | 696.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.1 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 64c | 523.26$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.26 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 72c | 368.9$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.61 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 32c | 350$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 28c | 321.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 21c | 319.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 9c | 253$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.23 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…94e7backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 74c | 249.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…bd2fbacked No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c0…e4babacked No | 74c | 137.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 28c | 128.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 70c | 127.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 26c | 115.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6dabbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…dcdfbacked Yes | 27c | 107.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…e878backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 30c | 101.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 26c | 88.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae8…347ebacked Yes | 27c | 85.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…4a25backed Yes | 27c | 84.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…6269backed No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…9609backed Yes | 27c | 77.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…85efbacked No | 73c | 69.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…2b03backed No | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadc…b84fbacked No | 73c | 67.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc19…d4f6backed No | 73c | 67.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244f…2c94backed Yes | 28c | 50.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…a786backed No | 73c | 49.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…0cf7backed No | 73c | 46.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…dd09backed No | 74c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…5fa4backed Yes | 41c | 36.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-30?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.