NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4e58f3dc783803cb908b0879f2df76725f14035aa19d5782cac700320374d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 52c | 2,021$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.04 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 2,005$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,988$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…3ca7backed Over | 52c | 1,481$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…67d0backed Under | 48c | 1,473$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f7…3099backed Over | 52c | 1,390$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…c126backed Under | 48c | 1,373$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…d17abacked Under | 48c | 1,185$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…859dbacked Under | 48c | 1,170$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,114$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…5de3backed Over | 52c | 1,027$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…b92cbacked Over | 52c | 1,017$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…e0adbacked Under | 50c | 754$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…3f63backed Over | 52c | 286$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Under | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…1bc7backed Over | 51c | 39.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…e979backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. HawksCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.