NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f3988adf2c64b45f2273b71ad8d2fcd83a0dcf484de792e56d4112ca18782d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,226 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Over	53c	23,019$12,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,818.87	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	16,992$8,133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,133.2	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd93f…2df9backed Over	51c	9,850$5,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,826.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda13…0276backed Under	49c	9,850$4,827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,826.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	51c	9,466$4,827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,638.14	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Over	51c	8,000$4,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,920	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	48c	6,599$3,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,144.77	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under	49c	5,753$2,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,818.76	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,409.99	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Under	49c	2,885$1,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.72	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under	49c	2,653$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under	49c	1,761$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870	321	50.8%163 W · 158 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Under	47c	1,500$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	10c	1,434$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.98	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Under	50c	1,036$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.3	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	-9.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under	21c	819$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.5	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under	16c	778.98$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.64	353	26.6%94 W · 259 L	+21.9wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+31%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	16c	736.92$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.48	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over	52c	719.23$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.23	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Under	11c	707.46$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.53	216	42.1%91 W · 125 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Over	54c	465$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.9	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Over	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a57…c3f8backed Over	51c	393.73$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	52c	313.86$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.65	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed Under	17c	281.31$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.07	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	47c	277.6$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.51	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	272.73$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.64	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	46c	260.87$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.87	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	47c	255.32$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	50c	255$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	53c	250$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	47c	249.64$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.33	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	20c	234.12$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.83	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	47c	213.24$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.47	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Under	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under	17c	194.83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.18	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb858…7dc3backed Over	53c	186.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.93	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-13.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	47c	109.98$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Under	47c	100.14$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.77	271	44.3%120 W · 151 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Under	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	85	11.8%10 W · 75 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	59c	80$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	22c	72.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	48c	55$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.55	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Under	47c	52.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	165	49.7%82 W · 83 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd13c…6170backed Over	42c	51$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.48	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9713…8219backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe881…1e75backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2488…788dbacked Under	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e46…957abacked Under	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cb4…bd40backed Over	53c	39.43$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.41	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over	53c	38.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.07	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec5b…9936backed Over	54c	33.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.33	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	50c	29.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Under	38c	29.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba4d…a31ebacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Under	49c	26.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	41c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.75	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1440…8cf8backed Under	65c	23.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c5…e29fbacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+38.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event