NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090b0715bf972e0e7f12ab9a24f189040f173d9c02cd28f6149f9c377c75764e

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Celticsof Celtics, Hawks
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics	46c	8,933$4,109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,823.99	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks	54c	8,655$4,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,662.98	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Celtics	47c	2,472$1,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,310.34	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	53c	2,204$1,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,168.25	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Hawks	55c	907.69$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics	46c	884.71$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.89	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hawks	54c	700$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Celtics	46c	700$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Hawks	55c	657.44$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.45	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Celtics	45c	654$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.7	184	38.6%71 W · 113 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…3f90backed Hawks	55c	589.41$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks	54c	398.21$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.04	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Celtics	45c	300$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Celtics	45c	213.33$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.33	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Hawks	53c	199.09$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.52	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Hawks	55c	140.49$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.22	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics	47c	125$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.69	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Celtics	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	774	37.5%290 W · 484 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa596…ce69backed Hawks	50c	94.4$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	97	64.9%63 W · 34 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Celtics	47c	91.28$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.38	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e2…3000backed Celtics	47c	86.53$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.86	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics	44c	82.41$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics	44c	78.87$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.16	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics	47c	72.6$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.48	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497a…650fbacked Hawks	53c	63.97$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Hawks	40c	54.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hawks	53c	47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Hawks	53c	42.55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb15d…d581backed Celtics	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	107	39.3%42 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Hawks	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	242	53.3%129 W · 113 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ce…2e0cbacked Hawks	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Celtics	45c	28.6$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.73	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d6…a56abacked Celtics	46c	21.74$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.74	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event