Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac6ccc3865a87cfecb1e55b371c1966edf0eb6c5cc921a8df4f88b8351f3329e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd62…8acfbacked Yes | 54c | 32,217$17,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,711.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 47c | 12,072$5,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,614.47 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 48c | 5,820$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.95 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 52c | 4,635$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.14 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 49c | 3,538$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 44c | 3,438$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 44c | 3,083$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.53 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 47c | 2,776$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.71 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Yes | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 52c | 1,748$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.6 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 51c | 1,200$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.82 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 44c | 1,166$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.07 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 45c | 866$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.68 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 50c | 822$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 800.14$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 48c | 646.83$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.4 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 52c | 630$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 41c | 576.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed Yes | 53c | 545.28$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.28 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 48c | 415.88$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 42c | 404.35$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.31 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed No | 44c | 397.02$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed Yes | 52c | 382.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 349.02$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…1a41backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 52c | 124.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 123.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 44c | 110.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 48c | 102.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…dbf8backed No | 51c | 88.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 55c | 70.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed No | 48c | 67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 59c | 55.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…8682backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 53c | 26.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed No | 53c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…6a22backed No | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will HNK Rijeka vs. NK Celje end in a draw?No won
- Will NK Celje win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.