Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacae046f023b30c94f6e85a1efedf5fdfbbfb7e61a97408be5e22176c1748fa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Under | 49c | 1,032$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.77 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b9cebacked Over | 52c | 981.2$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 346.18$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 49c | 199.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Over | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 47c | 163.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Under | 50c | 144.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Over | 50c | 140.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 44c | 84.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 48c | 58.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0f32backed Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…f9d1backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 162 | 40.7%66 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 51c | 34.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)South America Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.