TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Yokkaichi: Liam Broady vs Rio Noguchi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rio Noguchiof Liam Broady, Rio Noguchi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Liam Broady2c2,804$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.296,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Liam Broady72c2,058$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.9779855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rio Noguchi58c2,029$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.6211,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Liam Broady29c2,014$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.812,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liam Broady34c1,857$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.037,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Liam Broady40c979.61$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6648650.6%246 W · 240 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Rio Noguchi67c884.78$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.524,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Rio Noguchi48c823.98$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2624350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…48bebacked Liam Broady29c816.55$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rio Noguchi34c737.69$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.881,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Liam Broady35c699.96$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4924329.6%72 W · 171 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Rio Noguchi35c685.71$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.7129637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Rio Noguchi44c677.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4130744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Rio Noguchi70c611$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5169249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rio Noguchi58c588.41$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.858,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Liam Broady54c555.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30065959%389 W · 270 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1118…6f82backed Liam Broady29c543.45$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.63767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbba3…89cabacked Liam Broady40c505.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Rio Noguchi61c426.84$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.922,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Rio Noguchi72c414.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8250458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Rio Noguchi30c414.14$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.97,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Rio Noguchi76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7437071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Rio Noguchi66c379.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.681,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Liam Broady67c367.08$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.672,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d6…2546backed Rio Noguchi55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.642958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Liam Broady41c362.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Liam Broady36c350$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.71,90444.1%839 W · 1,065 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Liam Broady5c336.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.916,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Rio Noguchi76c317.87$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.533556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Liam Broady33c309.84$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5257267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe84b…ed6dbacked Liam Broady67c302.99$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Liam Broady65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19513147.3%62 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Rio Noguchi34c289.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.381,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rio Noguchi50c275.78$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.53,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Rio Noguchi71c251.48$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.931,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Liam Broady55c227.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12594549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Rio Noguchi56c216.79$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3948630.9%150 W · 336 L+2.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Liam Broady65c207$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.841,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Rio Noguchi78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4464365.9%424 W · 219 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Liam Broady65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13027344.7%122 W · 151 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e9…0aa5backed Liam Broady68c197.74$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Liam Broady32c180.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.343,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Liam Broady52c169$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8897644.6%435 W · 541 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Liam Broady33c165.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.533,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed Rio Noguchi61c164.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.752875%21 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Liam Broady65c153.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked Liam Broady39c152.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.424837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0cccbacked Liam Broady34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Rio Noguchi33c149.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.491,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Liam Broady67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Rio Noguchi34c141.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.671,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Rio Noguchi56c140.13$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.324,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Liam Broady45c138.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.441,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…cfffbacked Liam Broady50c137.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5316447.6%78 W · 86 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bd…6cecbacked Liam Broady50c137.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5323248.3%112 W · 120 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Liam Broady29c117.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.986,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe82c…4d90backed Liam Broady16c112.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.394413.6%6 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Liam Broady25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Rio Noguchi60c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4850644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…0321backed Liam Broady29c72.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.291827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Liam Broady23c71.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c3…079fbacked Liam Broady57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6790064.3%579 W · 321 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Rio Noguchi35c69.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.191,98046.2%915 W · 1,065 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Liam Broady66c67.32$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.432,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Liam Broady34c66.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.461,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x5e16…41f8backed Rio Noguchi76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.792470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Rio Noguchi32c63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.847,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Liam Broady28c61.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5224638.2%94 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Liam Broady66c59.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9621257.5%122 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf77…bae9backed Liam Broady25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7519443.3%84 W · 110 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liam Broady28c54.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.397,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Liam Broady27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cad…5d46backed Liam Broady26c49.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.794030%12 W · 28 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdda5…830dbacked Liam Broady46c47.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.94862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Liam Broady50c46.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.491,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc539…5ec2backed Liam Broady24c46.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.232843.9%144 W · 184 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc07…502abacked Rio Noguchi79c45.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.632568%17 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Rio Noguchi35c45.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7253544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf7…a5ffbacked Liam Broady60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf25…636dbacked Rio Noguchi71c41.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.924443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa446…d9c6backed Liam Broady58c30.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7115354.2%83 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Liam Broady66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054050.4%272 W · 268 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a7…3576backed Rio Noguchi62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.515258.6%89 W · 63 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Rio Noguchi41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74944.9%22 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbee…30b9backed Rio Noguchi35c28.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.587648.7%37 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Rio Noguchi61c28.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9139955.4%221 W · 178 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Liam Broady39c27.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6848652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Liam Broady39c27.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Liam Broady39c27.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6837153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Liam Broady60c26.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0315248.7%74 W · 78 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x877c…e669backed Liam Broady65c26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.922963.3%145 W · 84 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe761…4f54backed Liam Broady42c25.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.726349.4%130 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Liam Broady59c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1699255.9%555 W · 437 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Rio Noguchi69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7484963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ce…e232backed Rio Noguchi59c21.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Rio Noguchi51c20.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8434950.4%176 W · 173 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Liam Broady59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.85764.9%37 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Rio Noguchi76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.888273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Rio Noguchi69c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2526941.3%111 W · 158 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Rio Noguchi73c16.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.419544.2%42 W · 53 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.