Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace3b6c199fa391ec373ecdee1362e848a73d778bcbcb0b76e8d4debf5478357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 47c | 2,064$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 1,280$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.89 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 54c | 972.91$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.54 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed No | 52c | 824.93$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.28 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 46c | 635.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 45c | 426.93$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 260.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 54c | 230.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 48c | 227.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 53c | 196.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…3678backed Yes | 53c | 194.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 179.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 54c | 170.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 54c | 157.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 64c | 128.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 65c | 118.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Yes | 45c | 106.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0715…d9ebbacked Yes | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8419…4d80backed Yes | 28c | 97.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 31c | 87.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…684dbacked Yes | 46c | 84.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…bb76backed Yes | 46c | 82.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…6827backed Yes | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Yes | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 38c | 78.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked No | 55c | 72.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 58c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 45c | 51.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 40c | 49.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 57c | 45.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…a037backed Yes | 45c | 43.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…46f8backed Yes | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Draw at halftime?Yes won
- Sporting CP leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.