Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace667512b2f6ab4aacbc77bca4c88aa83f6a09b15ff7e562f0911f6f3424cba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,160 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Norrie | 15c | 5,374$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Alcaraz | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Norrie | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Norrie | 25c | 398.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 320.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 257.32$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Norrie | 28c | 241.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Norrie | 26c | 192.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Norrie | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Norrie | 15c | 186.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -9.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…1ff9backed Alcaraz | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Norrie | 25c | 125.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Norrie | 21c | 106.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Norrie | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…c40dbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 64.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Norrie | 28c | 63.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Norrie | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Norrie | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Norrie | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Norrie | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Norrie | 23c | 51.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 246 | 43.9%108 W · 138 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Norrie | 22c | 49.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…8fe6backed Norrie | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…2b95backed Alcaraz | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Alcaraz | 75c | 25.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Alcaraz | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…533bbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…afc0backed Alcaraz | 77c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Alcaraz | 76c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Norrie: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Norrie: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Norrie: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron NorrieCarlos Alcaraz won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Cameron Norrie: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs NorrieAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.